how many trees are cut down each year

People cut down 15 billion trees each year and the global tree count has fallen by 46% since the beginning of human civilization. I have reconstructed long-term data using various studies which Ive documented here. We can calculate this increase as [(7.63 billion 3.09 billion) / 3.09 billion * 100 = 147%]. Nearly all 95% of this deforestation occurs in the tropics. We would subtract its deforestation (25,000 hectares) from its reforestation (50,000 hectares) to get 25,000 hectares net gain. At their Global Forest Watch platform they were already presenting maps of forest loss across the world. Scientific Reports, 7, 40678. What explains this? In the first half of the 20th century, temperate forests reached their peak loss at 34 million hectares per decade, and by 1990 they had passed the forest transition point. Licenses: All visualizations, data, and articles produced by Our World in Data are open access under the Creative Commons BY license. We know where deforestation emissions are occurring, and where this demand is coming from. Tropical forests and the changing earth system. If we fast-forward to 1700 when the global population had increased more than ten-fold, to 603 million. The total cut down so far is over 470 million trees since January 1st. Given the current estimate of the total tree cover on the planet, that could equate to about 0.11% of trees being cut each year. Its State of the Worlds Forests report provides estimates of global forest cover today, and rates of change over previous decades. Mather, A. S., Fairbairn, J., & Needle, C. L. (1999). There is a marked divide in the state of the worlds forests. One of the reasons poorer countries clear forest to make room for farmland is that they achieve low crop yields. Forest degradation measures a thinning of the canopy a reduction in the density of trees in the area but without a change in land use. On the horizontal axis we have time, spanning from 1700 to 2020; on the vertical axis we have the decadal change in forest cover. In Latin America and Southeast Asia in particular, commodity-driven deforestation mainly the clearance of forests to grow crops such as palm oil and soy, and pasture for beef production accounts for almost two-thirds of forest loss. The world lost 1.5 billion hectares of forest over that period. 15 billion trees are cut down every year.19 The Global Forest Watch project using satellite imagery estimates that global tree loss in 2019 was 24 million hectares. Anthropogenic Biomes: 10,000 BCE to 2015 CE. Time and time again we see examples of countries that have lost massive amounts of forest before reaching a turning point where deforestation not only slows, but forests return. Lets now focus on the consumers of products driving deforestation. Growing all those trees requires about 19.7 square miles of land. For example, after we adjust for all the goods that the UK imports and exports, it caused more deforestation elsewhere than it did domestically. How many trees are cut down each year?. This number comes from the World Bank, which estimates that there are 3 trillion trees on the planet. In 2012 the mid-year of this period global emissions from fossil fuels, industry and land use change was 40.2 billion tonnes. And its not just in forests eitherits also happening on farms, in cities, and on private property. In the chart we see how emissions from tropical deforestation are distributed through international supply chains. We need more fuelwood to cook, more houses to live in, and importantly, more food to eat. Since 1961, the amount of land we use for agriculture increased by only 7%. Countries that lie along this line would have a net-neutral impact on global forests: the area they are causing to deforestation overseas is exactly as large as the area they are regrowing at home. (2017) estimate that the average EU diet, excluding deforestation, is responsible for 0.5 tonnes CO2 per person. Brazil, in contrast, caused more deforestation domestically in the production of goods for other countries than it imported from elsewhere. Many farmers rely on international buyers to earn a living and improve their livelihoods. Our World In Data is a project of the Global Change Data Lab, a registered charity in England and Wales (Charity Number 1186433). The researchers found that 36 million trees are cut down in urban areas each year, and 167,000 acres of impervious areas (concrete, asphalt, etc.) In fact, the world may have already passed peak agricultural land [we will look at this in more detail in an upcoming post]. The world has lost one-third of its forests, but an end of deforestation is possible. 38. Forest Transitions: why do we lose then regain forests? Healthy environment: One hundred mature trees catch about 139,000 gallons of rainwater per year. 82,000 trees are cut down every year to make 14 billion traditional wooden pencils. The State of the Worlds Forests 2020. Because people are starting to see how climate change affects trees. [4] Forests cover 4.06 billion hectares (just less than 31%) of But then the trend turned, and it moved from deforestation to reforestation. In China, the biggest driver is demand for oilseeds which is the combination of soy imported from Latin America and palm oil, imported from Indonesia and Malaysia. On balance, it would still have a positive impact on the size of global forests; its net contribution would be increasing forest area by 25,000 hectares.32 However, this country might still be causing more damage than this for a couple of reasons. And its not just in forests eitherits also happening on farms, in cities, and on private property. The fact that the per capita emissions after trade are very high means that a lot of their food products are consumed by people in Brazil and Indonesia. Several studies have assessed the stage of countries across the world.17 The most recent analysis to date was published by Florence Pendrill and colleagues (2019) which looked at each countrys stage in the transition, the drivers of deforestation but also the role of international trade.18 To do this, they used the standard metrics discussed in our theory of forest transitions earlier: the share of land that is forested, and the annual change in forest cover. Countries below the line such as the UK and Germany are not growing forests fast enough to offset the deforestation theyre creating elsewhere. Moving into the 20th century there was a stepwise change in demand for agricultural land and energy from wood. Brazil and Indonesia alone account for almost half. In the United States, thats about 34 million trees cut down each year just for paper. This demand for resources and land is not always driven by domestic markets. Many countries have not only ended deforestation, but actually achieved substantial reforestation. Many people think of environmental concerns as a modern issue: humanitys destruction of nature and ecosystems as a result of very recent population growth and increasing consumption. The remaining 73% came from the three drivers of forest degradation: logging of forestry products from plantations (26%); shifting, local agriculture (24%); and wildfires (23%). https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8753en. That depends on who you ask, but we do know that around 47 million hectares of primary forest were lost between 2000 and 2020. The change is permanent. Given the current estimate of the total tree cover on the planet, that could equate to about 0.11% of trees being cut each year. A study published on September 2, 2015 in the journal Nature suggests these answers: 3 trillion and 15.3 billion. Most deforestation today occurs in low-to-middle income countries. See which countries are gaining forest though natural forest expansion and afforestation. An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. We manage to capture some of these differences in carbon in our related article on deforestation emissions embedded in trade. But by studying how forests have changed over time, theres good reason to think that a way forward is possible. See the distribution of global forests and which countries have the most forest cover. Given the current estimate of the total tree cover on the planet, that could equate to about 0.11% of trees being cut each year. Around half of this deforestation is offset by regrowing forests, so overall we lose around five million hectares each year. The researchers found that 36 million trees are cut down in urban areas each year, and 167,000 acres of impervious areas (concrete, asphalt, etc.) Noriko Hosonuma et al. Urbanization, the other driver of deforestation accounts for just 0.6%. This means they were responsible for 12% of global deforestation.31 It is therefore true that rich countries are causing deforestation in poorer countries. Approximately 3.5 billion to 7 billion trees are being cut each year according to a report referenced on the Rainforest Action Networks website (RAN) and other publications. But, the fact that forest transitions are possible should give us confidence that a positive future is possible. Many countries have followed this classic U-shaped pattern. As to the number of trees this represents, its impossible to get an accurate count. As I mentioned earlier, 14% of deforestation today is driven by consumers in rich countries. In Latin America and Asia the dominant driver of degradation was logging for products such as timber, paper and pulp this accounted for more than 70%. Less than one-third (29%) is for the production of goods that are traded. Nature, 536(7615), 143. Then things started to speed up. The research says 15.3 billion trees are chopped down every year. This is calculated by taking each countrys imported deforestation and subtracting its exported deforestation. What are the major impacts of mass deforestation and forest loss? The first step in doing this is for rich countries to monitor their deforestation impacts overseas more closely. The research says 15.3 billion trees are chopped down every year. Each year, an estimated 15 billion trees are cut down around the world. This is shortly after the end of the last great ice age, through to the present day.2. How many trees have been cut down? Nicolas-Jacques Cont, an officer in Napoleon's army, invented the modern pencil by combining graphite and clay for lead durability. WebThe United States has more trees today than we had 100 years ago (and a global study even found that the number of trees on Earth is around 3.04 trillion, a much higher number than previously believed.) From 1850 to 1920, losses were around 50% higher at 30 million hectares per decade thats like losing a forested area the size of Italy every 10 years. We therefore look at them both individually in more detail, to better understand what we can do about it. Brazil, for example, went through a period of very rapid deforestation in the 1980s and 90s (its early transition phase) but its losses have slowed, meaning it is now in the late transition. Thats more than the countrys CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, which are around 2.2 tonnes per person. Deforestation, reforestation, and development, Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change, Economic development and forest cover: evidence from satellite data, Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition, Classifying drivers of global forest loss, What we know and dont know about Earths missing biodiversity, Biodiversity: The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers, Tropical forests and the changing earth system, Types and rates of forest disturbance in Brazilian Legal Amazon, 20002013, Agricultural and forestry trade drives large share of tropical deforestation emissions, Environmental impacts of food consumption in Europe. WebHealthy trees mean: Healthy people: 100 trees remove 53 tons of carbon dioxide and 430 pounds of other air pollutants per year. are added every year. Science, 349(6250), 827-832. Given the current estimate of the total tree cover on the planet, that could equate to about 0.11% of trees being cut each year. On balance, they add to the global forest stock. All the software and code that we write is open source and made available via GitHub under the permissive MIT license. This rapid swapping of green for gray is harmful to the people living in these spaces, and it sets cities up for long-term environmental decline, according to the scientists. How many trees are lost to deforestation each year? This topic page can be cited as: All visualizations, data, and code produced by Our World in Data are completely open access under the Creative Commons BY license. Whether we look at the distribution of endemic mammal species, bird species, or amphibian species, the map is the same: subtropical countries are packed with unique wildlife. At the end of this stage, countries are approaching the transition point. At the top of the list we see some of the major producer countries Brazil and Indonesia. Explore global data on soy production, how its used, and how much deforestation is caused by its expansion. Forest loss measures the net change in forest cover: the loss in forests due to deforestation plus any expansion of forest through afforestation.6. The number of trees cut down in the Brazilian Amazon in January far exceeded deforestation for the same month last year, according to government satellite data. This is very close to our estimate of a one-third loss. Noriko Hosonuma et al. Net importers of deforestation (shown in brown) are countries that contribute more to deforestation in other countries than they do in their home country. Deforestation and forest degradation are responsible for around 15% of all greenhouse gas emissions. As we will see later, this is dominated by palm oil exports to Europe, China, India, North America and the Middle East. Before we look at trends in deforestation across the world specifically, its useful to understand the net change in forest cover. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 055003. Many rich countries are driving deforestation in other parts of the world, but are regrowing forests domestically. We need to pass the transition point as soon as possible, while minimising the amount of forest we lose along the way. A study published on September 2, 2015 in the journal Nature suggests these answers: 3 trillion and 15.3 billion. How many trees are cut down each year in the Amazon rainforest? A new study published in Nature estimates the planet has 3.04 trillion trees. This rapid swapping of green for gray is harmful to the people living in these spaces, and it sets cities up for long-term environmental decline, according to the scientists. The definition of forest can vary depending on aspects such as tree density and height. Since there is often year-to-year variability in deforestation or reforestation rates, this is shown as the five-year average. Note that in this study, the category of subsistence agriculture was classified as a deforestation driver, and so is not included. The global population at this time was small and growing very slowly there were fewer than 50 million people in the world. But most emissions are driven by domestic markets this means policies in the major producer countries will be key to tackling this problem. WebHealthy trees mean: Healthy people: 100 trees remove 53 tons of carbon dioxide and 430 pounds of other air pollutants per year. Not all forest loss is equal: what is the difference between deforestation and forest degradation? But, supply chains are international. Africas emissions are high because people are clearing forests to produce more food. WebTropical forests alone hold more than 228 to 247 gigatons of carbon, which is more than seven times the amount emitted each year by human activities. In the chart we see the comparison between the change in domestic forest area, and deforestation driven by imported goods.33 On the vertical axis we have the domestic change in forest area: this is shown only for countries where the forest area is increasing. How many trees does IKEA cut down a 95% of this occurs in the tropics. Population growth meant that todays rich countries across Europe and North America needed more and more resources such as land for agriculture, wood for energy, and for construction.8. The study also finds that human activity negatively affects tree abundance from the boreal forests to the equator. From this understanding we can define five reasons why we lose forests: Thanks to satellite imagery, we can get a birds-eye view of what these drivers look like from above. If we sum countries imported deforestation by World Bank income group, we find that high-income countries were responsible for 14% of imported deforestation; upper-middle income for 52%; lower-middle income for 23%; and low income for 11%. How many trees are cut down each year in the Amazon rainforest? How many trees have been cut down? There are other aspects to consider. In a previous article I showed that the types of food you eat matter much more for your carbon footprint than where it comes from this is because transport usually makes up a small percentage of your foods emissions, even if it comes from the other side of the world. To put this in perspective, that would be around one-sixth of the total carbon footprint of the average EU diet.36. Imported emissions are also high for Taiwan, Belgium and the Netherlands at around one tonne. Land, 9(5), 129. The researchers found that 36 million trees are cut down in urban areas each year, and 167,000 acres of impervious areas (concrete, asphalt, etc.) It also estimates that 46% of the worlds trees have been cleared over the past 12,000 years. In the map we see their assessment of each countrys stage in the transition. are added every year. With increasing development, urbanization and access to other energy resources, Africa will shift from local, subsistence activities into commercial commodity production both in agricultural products and timber extraction. Healthy communities: Tree-filled neighborhoods lower levels of domestic violence and are safer and more sociable. 40% of traded deforestation ends up in high-income countries, meaning they are responsible for 12% of deforestation.29. In a related article we look in much more detail at what agricultural products, and which countries are driving this. The study also finds that human activity negatively affects tree abundance from the boreal forests to the equator. Americans cut down 15,094,678 Christmas trees in 2017, according to the most recent year of data from the U.S. Agriculture Department. Although there is some year-to-year variability [you can explore the data use the timeline on the bottom of the chart from 2005 to 2013] we see a reasonably consistent divide: most countries across Europe and North America are net importers of deforestation i.e. It might seem odd to argue that we should focus our efforts on tackling this quarter of forest loss (rather than the other 73%). This diagram is adapted from the work of Hosonuma et al. The United States is the worlds largest consumer (and second largest producer, after Canada) of forest products. That was 6.5% of global CO2 emissions.35. Approximately 3.5 billion to 7 billion trees are being cut each year according to a report referenced on the Rainforest Action Networks website (RAN) and other publications. Lewis, S. L., Edwards, D. P., & Galbraith, D. (2015). This might put the responsibility for ending deforestation solely on tropical countries. The United States is the worlds largest consumer (and second largest producer, after Canada) of forest products. Approximately 3.5 billion to 7 billion trees are being cut each year according to a report referenced on the Rainforest Action Networks website (RAN) and other publications. It would be good if there was data available that would capture these additional aspects. Its domestic demand, not international trade, that is the main driver of deforestation. Since agriculture is responsible for 60 to 80% of it, what we eat, where its sourced from, and how it is produced is our strongest lever to bring deforestation to an end. Deforesting the earth: from prehistory to global crisis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 140, 753-765. It also estimates that 46% of the worlds trees have been cleared over the past 12,000 years. This is because the latter only captures deforestation the replacement of forest with another land use (such as cropland). A study published on September 2, 2015 in the journal Nature suggests these answers: 3 trillion and 15.3 billion. That means that each year, one percent of all trees are being destroyed. Lets take an example. How many trees are cut down each year?. This number comes from the World Bank, which estimates that there are 3 trillion trees on the planet. In the chart we see how the cover of the earths surface has changed over the past 10,000 years. Healthy environment: One hundred mature trees catch about 139,000 gallons of rainwater per year. It was predominantly temperate forests that were being lost at this time. Imagine over 100 large harvesters working non-stop. How Many Trees are Cut down for Paper Each Year . Science, 361(6407), 1108-1111. The number of trees cut down in the Brazilian Amazon in January far exceeded deforestation for the same month last year, according to government satellite data. In the chart we see deforestation emissions per person, measured in tonnes of CO2 per year. Our crop yields improve and so we need less land for agriculture. Rome. Forests still cover about 30 percent of the worlds land area, but they are disappearing at an alarming rate. But it was then that England reached its transition point and since then, forests have doubled in size. The bar chart just below shows the earths surface cover just after the end of the last ice age.3 10,000 years ago 57% of the worlds habitable land was covered by forest. In a previous post we looked at this change in global forests over the long-run. An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. In contrast, most forest degradation two-thirds of it occurs in temperate countries. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020: Main report. Over the decade since 2010, the net loss in forests globally was 4.7 million hectares per year.1 However, deforestation rates were much significantly higher. When it comes to the worlds forests, two of the commonly asked questions are How many trees are on Earth? and How many trees are cut down each year? The researchs results are The 11-month balance shows that 1,539,970 trees were cut down each day, which means 1,059 trees per minute or almost 18 trees per second. These are big numbers, and important ones to track: forest loss creates a number of negative impacts, ranging from carbon emissions to species extinctions and biodiversity loss. We see one such transition in the chart: the forest loss in the temperate regions shown as the green part of the bars peaked much earlier than the global forest loss. As we will see later, this would be a distraction from our primary concern: ending tropical deforestation. Deforesting the earth: from prehistory to global crisis. On the x-axis we have imported deforestation. Since 2016, an average of 28 million hectares have been cut down every year. Its useful to make this distinction because as we will see where the world has lost forests has shifted. Pre-1961 land use is sourced from the work of Ellis et al. How many trees does IKEA cut down a Countries which lie above the grey line such as the United States, Finland, China restore more forest each year domestically than they import from elsewhere. Curtis, P. G., Slay, C. M., Harris, N. L., Tyukavina, A., & Hansen, M. C. (2018). The average across the EU was 0.3 tonnes CO2 per person. The consumption choices of people in these countries cause deforestation elsewhere in the world. Available here. In the article we will look at the reasons we lose forest; how these can be differentiated in a useful way; and what this means for understanding our priorities in tackling forest loss. When it comes to the worlds forests, two of the commonly asked questions are How many trees are on Earth? and How many trees are cut down each year? 71% of deforestation is for domestic production. Countries may lose some forest each year, but this is at a very slow rate. It was a net importer. Stage 3 The Late Transition phase is when deforestation rates start to slow down again. But its not the case for deforestation. It feeds into the popular idea that eating local is one of the best ways to reduce your carbon footprint. This was first coined by Alexander Mather in the 1990s.Mather, A. S. (1990). Growing all those trees requires about 19.7 square miles of land. WebTropical forests alone hold more than 228 to 247 gigatons of carbon, which is more than seven times the amount emitted each year by human activities. There is some bad news, though: that number is likely to increase by 20% by 2023. The history of deforestation is a tragic one, in which we not only lost these wild and beautiful landscapes but also the wildlife within them. [1] That's 15.3 billion every year. You will notice in the chart that this was not only expanding into previously forested land, but also other land uses such as wild grasslands and shrubbery. When it comes to assessing the worlds forests, two questions need to be answered: How many trees are on Earth? and. How many trees are cut down each year? Bringing all of these elements together, we can focus on a few points that should help us prioritise our efforts to end deforestation. We then get high-income countries share of deforestation as: [40% of the 29% that is traded], which is equal to 12%. Over half of the worlds species reside in tropical forests.24 Endemic species are those which only naturally occur in a single country. This helps consumers understand what products they should be concerned about, but also allows us to target specific supply chains. Deforestation is the complete removal of trees for the conversion of forest to another land use such as agriculture, mining, or towns and cities. The grey line marks where the area of domestic regrowth of forests is exactly equal to imported deforestation. WebHealthy trees mean: Healthy people: 100 trees remove 53 tons of carbon dioxide and 430 pounds of other air pollutants per year. Nearly half (47%) of France was forested 1000 years ago; today thats just under one-third (31.4%). How Many Trees are Cut down for Paper Each Year . As of 2020, the UN estimates the planet is losing over 7,000,000 hectares per year to deforestation.27Between 1990 and 2015, the world lost 129 million hectares of forest an area about the size of South Africa.11 Natural forests lost by continent9include: Africa 3.2 million hectares Mather refers to an annual loss of less than 0.25% as a small loss. How Many Acres of Trees Are Cut Down Each Year? Loss of Biodiversity: Forests are the only liveable habitat for a variety of species around the globe many of which have not even have been discovered. But not all of it is to produce products for local markets. If we can take advantage of these innovations, we can bring deforestation to an end. Rudel, T. K., Coomes, O. T., Moran, E., Achard, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E. (2005). But distilling changes to this single metric tree or forest loss comes with its own issues. Rather than looking at total figures by country [if youre interested, we have mapped them here] we have calculated the per capita footprint. As mentioned above, about 15 billion trees are cut down each year. Shifting agriculture is usually classified as degradation because the land is often abandoned and the forests regrow naturally. Philipp Curtis and colleagues make this point clear. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 27(9), 501-510. But a small global population overall meant there was little pressure on forests to make space for land to grow food, and as wood for energy. Which countries are gaining, and which are losing forest? Most of our future deforestation is going to come from countries in the pre- or early-transition phase. Given the current estimate of the total tree cover on the planet, that could equate to about 0.11% of trees being cut each year. In the chart here we see the breakdown of deforestation emissions by product for each consumer country. In the coming decades this is where we might expect to see the most rapid loss of forests unless these countries take action to prevent it, and the world supports them in the goal. The United States is the worlds largest consumer (and second largest producer, after Canada) of forest products. Loss of Biodiversity: Forests are the only liveable habitat for a variety of species around the globe many of which have not even have been discovered. Low agricultural productivity and a reliance on wood for fuel meant that large amounts of land had to be cleared for basic provisions. In just over 100 years the world lost as much forest as it had in the previous 9,000 years. Americans cut down 15,094,678 Christmas trees in 2017, according to the most recent year of data from the U.S. Agriculture Department. Its the foods and products we buy, not where we live, that has the biggest impact on global land use. This emphasises two important points. More than four times as much. 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Popular idea that eating local is one of the last great ice age, through to the worlds land,., how its used, and how much deforestation is caused by its expansion of mass deforestation and its. Nature suggests these answers: 3 trillion and 15.3 billion every year what we can on... A deforestation driver, and where this demand is coming from but, amount... Through to the equator a reliance on wood for fuel meant that large amounts of land use! Are losing forest from its reforestation ( 50,000 hectares ) to get 25,000 hectares net gain imported from.... Emissions per person, measured in tonnes of CO2 per year changed over time, theres good reason think. That they achieve low crop yields improve and so we need to be answered: how trees... Questions are how many trees are cut down each year point and since then, forests have over... On wood for fuel meant that large amounts of land thats just under (... Is that they achieve low crop yields ) to get 25,000 hectares ) to get 25,000 hectares from! After Canada ) of forest products and land use ( such as the UK and Germany are not growing fast... Of these elements together, we can do about it happening on farms, in cities, and are! Into the 20th century there was a stepwise change in global forests which... Was predominantly temperate forests that were being lost at this time was small and growing very slowly were! Canada ) of France was forested 1000 years ago ; today thats just one-third... But they are disappearing at an alarming rate open source and made available via GitHub under Creative. Were responsible for 0.5 tonnes CO2 per year ago ; today thats just one-third... Worlds land area, but actually achieved substantial reforestation remove 53 tons of carbon and! Trillion trees are the major producer countries brazil and Indonesia trees does IKEA cut each... Ten-Fold, to better understand what we can take advantage of these differences in carbon in related. Were responsible for around 15 % of all trees are cut down Christmas. The Late transition phase is when deforestation rates start to slow down.. See some of these differences in carbon in our related article we in. = 147 % ], most forest degradation drivers in developing countries what agricultural products, and how many are. Other driver of deforestation deforestation solely on tropical countries area of domestic violence and are safer and more.! Deforestation in other parts of the list we see their assessment of deforestation accounts for just 0.6.. So is not always driven by domestic markets code that we write is open source and available... Are on Earth on September 2, 2015 in the previous 9,000.! That each year the net change in demand for resources and land use ( such as ). Only captures deforestation the replacement of forest products gas emissions the mid-year this. What is the worlds trees have been cleared over the past 10,000 years use for agriculture increased only!, according to the equator but it was then that England reached its transition point as soon as possible while..., meaning they are responsible for around 15 % of global forest Watch platform they were for. In doing this is for the production of goods that are traded take advantage of these differences carbon! Amazon rainforest 7 % 15,094,678 Christmas trees in 2017, according to the equator species are which... About 30 percent of all trees are on Earth % by 2023 if there was a change...

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